Active Hurricane Season Predicted

Hurricane Ike 2008 (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration)

View of Hurricane Ike from the International Space Station (NASA)

The day before yesterday, the Atlantic hurricane season began, and is predicted to be among the most active on record. (The season lasts through November 30th.)

While it’s true that Kansas isn’t directly affected by these powerful and destructive storms, their impact – as Katrina emphasized a few short years ago – can be enormous.

The official 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook is a joint product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Climate Prediction Center. This year the Outlook “calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.”

They add that “the conditions expected this year have historically produced some very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2010 hurricane season could see activity comparable to a number of extremely active seasons since 1995. If the 2010 activity reaches the upper end of our predicted ranges, it will be one of the most active seasons on record.

“We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season: 14-23 Named Storms, 8-14 Hurricanes, [and] 3-7 Major Hurricanes.” (See the Outlook itself for a much more detailed analysis.)

For additional insights see NOAA’s press release NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

At the same time, NOAA is projecting a comparatively quiescent Pacific Ocean season, as indicated by their press release NOAA Predicts Below Normal Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.

An interesting sidelight can be found in the discussion of hurricane modeling and prediction by Florida State University scientists in this item from Science Daily.

What are the implications of a very active and dangerous hurricane season for the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? You may find the answers to your questions in a two-page NOAA factsheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill.

For real-time observation of developing and threatening hurricanes using satellite imagery and current reports see NOAA’s Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery website, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center website, and Colorado State University’s Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.

NASA’s Hurricane Resource Webpage includes the latest storm images and data from NASA satellites, in addition to a wealth of collateral information, related research news, and links to other good sites.

I’d especially recommend the resources in Hurricanes in [Recent] History, the Hurricane Educational Links and a short but interesting 4-page brochure on NASA’s Role In Hurricane Research.

Hurricane Noel 2007 Infrared (NOAA)

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Published in: on June 3, 2010 at 3:47 pm  Leave a Comment  

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